As a reminder, the original Switch will be entering its ninth year in stores in March 2025, so while there are doubtless some late adopters and budget-conscious gamers to mop up with attractive hardware bundles in the months ahead — and perhaps even some enthusiasts looking to get a mint-in-box system on the shelf before they become scarce — this sales decline is hardly unexpected.
Why would Nintendo fans buy an OG Switch now with the new one waiting in the wings that’ll play nearly all the Switch’s games anyway?
The reality is that Nintendo is almost at Switch saturation point; everybody who wants one has got one. It’s not impossible it could go on to sell another 10 million units and take PS2’s best-selling console crown (assuming Sony doesn’t move the goalposts again), but it feels like wishful thinking – especially given Switch 2’s backward compatibility. Why would Nintendo fans buy an OG Switch now with the new one waiting in the wings that’ll play nearly all the Switch’s games anyway?
The general gaming conversation late last year centred around Nintendo’s Switch 2 announcement plans, as leaks sprung essentially confirming its form and function before the official reveal in January. Conventional wisdom suggested that of course the company wasn’t going to announce the successor and neuter holiday sales potential, but with Nintendo you never can tell. Turns out they held their marketing nerve even as the calls became deafening, sensibly hoping to milk Switch for one final holiday season. The results don’t call for cork-popping, but from a business and timing perspective, it was the logical move.
As you’d expect, investors will be champing at the bit for Switch 2’s release as soon as possible to kickstart the next generation and boost hardware sales and overall numbers back to the stratospheric heights of 2017-2021. “Switch 2 cannot come soon enough,” says Dr. Serkan Toto speaking to VGC. The analyst believes Nintendo “overestimated the life that is still left in the Switch” and “expect[s] them to miss even this lowered forecast.”
It’s not just the analysts and the shareholders desperate for new news, though — we’re all jonesing for something fresh. Switch 2’s launch date has yet to be shared, although Nintendo has a Direct lined up for 2nd April, and it seems everyone — fans and investors alike — will be hoping for a June or July summer date, rather than October or November. The current console isn’t quite on life support but it may as well be, and the Switch 2 ‘Experiences’ (which, more than a PR move, feel like a further two-month delay tactic to bolster production numbers ready for launch) are overkill for a system gamers are so hungry for.
It’s almost like Switch is a very old platform and everyone’s waiting for the new hotness.
Could Nintendo limp through the summer months, through its Q4 results in three months, without having the Switch 2’s imminent launch to dispel shareholder displeasure? It certainly could — the situation isn’t financially catastrophic despite those slashed forecasts — but everyone’s on edge as it is, and the announced lineup for Switch won’t help.
Xenoblade Chronicles X is excellent, but a known quantity. A tentpole release like Pokémon Legends: Z-A will attract attention and, along with Metroid Prime 4: Beyond, is eagerly awaited by a devoted fan base…but they’ll both presumably be playable on the new console. And again, everyone who wants to play those games already has a Switch. OG hardware numbers aren’t going to perk up in any meaningful way, even if new tie-in SKUs appear.
I don’t believe Nintendo cares about beating Sony’s ever-moving PS2 record – it won’t be distracted by that. Of course, were Switch 1 to break the all-time best-selling console record, Nintendo’s marketing department would be delighted, but the Kyoto firm is too sensible to chase a record for the sake of it.
No, all eyes are now focused on a successful launch for Switch 2, and the clock is ticking. Looking at how quiet Nintendo’s internal development teams have been over the last couple of years, it suggests the big software guns are being prepped to fire with everything they’ve got come April. All drama aside, the pressure is on for Nintendo to meet everyone’s expectations, and then some.
