Why Superman box office projections are so hard to predict
James Gunn’s Superman should be the biggest movie of the weekend, but its box office projections are a bit all over the place.
Ever since Avengers: Endgame, comic book adaptations have been pretty spotty at the box office. Unless they have a nostalgic hook (Spider-Man: No Way Home and Deadpool & Wolverine are two of the highest-grossing movies of all time), they’ve been struggling to do big numbers.
That’s why there is so much riding on Superman: it could prove whether or not superhero movie fatigue is a real thing. This is the launchpad for a rebooted DC Universe; new cast, new vibe, new everything.
It needs to be a hit – the question is, how much will it make? Well, that depends on who you ask (and how objective they are).
Superman box office projections
Superman is currently expected to make at least $200 million worldwide in its opening weekend, with at least $110 million coming from the US.
However, forecasts vary fairly massively depending on where you look. For example, Box Office Pro has predicted an opening weekend domestic range of $115-135 million, which would be a step up from Man of Steel’s $116 million.
The outlet also notes that its strong reviews (83% on Rotten Tomatoes at the time of writing) and extensive marketing push could push it to the high end of that estimate, if not beyond it.
EmpireCity Box Office has reported similar estimates. “The floor has risen, but looking mostly like a $110m-$120m three-day opening for Superman,” it posted.
“Ticket sales accelerated somewhat after reviews, but nothing approaching the $130m-$170m that others have put out.”
However, earlier this week, Luiz Fernando (a reputable box office reporter) projected a $230-250 million global opening, which would be a record-breaking start for a Superman film. For context, Man of Steel opened with just over $200 million worldwide, while Batman v Superman opened with $420 million (before plummeting the weekend after).
Other accounts have posted even higher estimates for its domestic haul, with figures as high as $170 million floating around. Be wary, because they seem to be based on instinct (or hope) more than actual pre-sales analysis – that’s not to say it definitely won’t exceed expectations, but we’ll have to wait and see.
Superman box office could surge or slump in its first weekend
Here’s the thing: Superman has simply never been an enormous box office draw for audiences. Look at Superman Returns in 2006: it was well-reviewed, fans seemed to enjoy it, but it only made shy of $400 million worldwide by the end of its run.
Batman v Superman made nearly $875 million total, and that was considered a box office disappointment, considering Marvel’s incredible run of $1 billion-plus releases. Also, that was anchored around a more consistently popular character: Batman. Even Robert Pattinson’s Batman opened to nearly $260 million worldwide, and that had age restrictions in some markets.
Plus, it’s a really competitive time in theaters. Jurassic World Rebirth opened last weekend and beat everyone’s estimates, raking in over $320 million globally. Its popularity will carry over into this weekend and eat into Superman’s sales, which is probably why estimates seem a little conservative (and that’s before we get to Fantastic Four on July 25).
This all said, when you don’t pay attention to Snyder fans trying to bring it down, word of mouth has been extraordinary for the new film. Its audience and critic scores on Rotten Tomatoes are both high, and it’s a major four-quadrant release – every member of the household can go see it.
Superman is in cinemas nationwide from July 11. Read our breakdown of every upcoming DCU and Elseworlds project, find out where Superman will be streaming, how long it is, and details about its post-credits scenes.
