LONDON, Mar 11 (IPS) – After three years of bloodshed, extraordinary courage and immense sacrifices in resisting Russia’s invasion, the people of Ukraine are in limbo as peace negotiations to end the war, instigated by United States President Donald Trump, remain unpredictable.
Trump announced his intention to broker an end to the Ukraine war in February, but efforts so far have been plagued by disinformation, undiplomatic behavior, and erratic political signals. And Ukraine and its allies have become increasingly concerned that the U.S. administration could defer to Russia’s demands and a weak peace agreement will lead to continuing insecurity.
“The way of diplomatic settlement of the situation chosen by Donald Trump is absolutely amateur and deadly short-sighted,” Andrii Mikheiev, International Lawyer at the International Centre for Ukrainian Victory in Europe, told IPS. “The main priority for Trump is speed, not the long-term outcomes and having declared the peace-through-strength principle, he is deploying strength to the victim, not to the internationally recognized aggressor, because it may lead to faster results.” As such, “Trump undermines all the accomplishments of the Ukrainian army and western efforts provided through military, humanitarian support and sanctions.”
The way in which peace negotiations are being conducted is also creating “an unfolding crisis of trust, both within the U.S. and toward the U.S. as a reliable partner,” Ukrainian documentary filmmaker Anna Kryvenko told IPS. “One moment we hear promises of unwavering support, and the next we see hesitation, political infighting and an undercurrent of deal-making that suggests Ukraine’s fate is just another bargaining chip in their own internal struggles.”
Ukraine, an Eastern European state of about 38 million people, spans Russia to the east and Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Moldova and Romania to the west and south. It became part of the Soviet Union after Soviet troops invaded in 1921 until its declaration of independence in 1991, when the Communist era ended. But Russia, under the expansionist vision of President Vladimir Putin, has never accepted Ukraine’s secession, despite more than 80 percent of Ukrainians supporting EU and NATO membership. In 2014, public frustrations about lack of progress toward these aspirations sparked a popular uprising and ousting of the pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych. Russia responded by seizing the Crimean Peninsula, which was granted to Ukraine by Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev in 1954.
Putin perceives the expansion of the EU and NATO toward Russia’s borders as a grave threat and, in 2021, delivered an ultimatum to the latter to cease activities in the region, including Ukraine. After NATO’s refusal, Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
Russian forces are now focused on advancing into the northern and eastern regions of Ukraine, including Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and have seized about 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory. Russia possesses greater military capacity. But Ukraine, under the leadership of President Volodymyr Zelensky, mobilized a massive military and civilian resistance with the assistance of its western allies that has successfully defended the country.
But the sacrifices have been immense. At least 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 12,654 civilians have lost their lives. More than 10 million people have been displaced and 12.7 million need humanitarian assistance, reports the United Nations. Yet while Ukraine is keen for an end to hostilities, “Zelensky and Ukraine want a fair peace, one that would bring security to the embattled country and pay honor to the enormous price that it paid,” claim editors of Kyiv Independent news.
Preliminary meetings were held between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, in Riyadh on February 18, and between U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg and Ukraine’s President Zelensky in Kyiv on February 20.
Trump claims he is working “for both Ukraine and Russia,” but many of his public statements have been contradictory. He has labeled Zelensky a dictator without popular support, despite polls showing that his approval rating is 63 percent, and falsely accused him of starting the war. He raised tensions by suggesting that Zelensky would play a negligible part in any peace pact and refused to commit to Ukraine’s security. The support of the U.S. for Russia in the UN General Assembly vote on a resolution on 24 February that condemned Russia’s invasion further cemented European concerns about the fragmenting of the global order. An order based on a post-Second World War alliance of powers upholding democratic values and international law.
European leaders, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and French President Emmanuel Macron, have struck a united front, hosting regional summits in their capitals to accelerate a plan of action to support Ukraine in peace negotiations. “In the face of this dangerous world, remaining a spectator is madness… and the path to peace cannot pass through the abandonment of Ukraine,” Macron announced on March 5. A peace deal which bows to Russian demands would jeopardize Europe’s security and democratic governance. And potentially pave the way for a widening campaign of Russian aggression on the continent.
Ukrainians truly want peace, but not at the cost of giving up Ukraine. The real question for any negotiations is whether Russia is capable of giving up the war. Zelensky also stated this early this month.
“The danger is in allowing the negotiations to become just another episode of elite maneuvering where the same Putin-backed narratives creep in under the guise of ‘compromise.” Kryvenko warned.
Tetiana Zemliakova, co-organizer of the Invisible University for Ukraine at the Central European University in Budapest, Hungary, told IPS that. “There are two central claims : first, there is no other war and second, the aggressor is punished. Based on what we know about Ukrainian society, one would not work without the other,” she said.
Ukraine’s leaders stress that security provisions that protect it from further attack are a key condition for peace and the best instrument is NATO membership, but it’s an option that has been rejected by the U.S. and Russia. Mikheiev stressed that Europe must now escalate its role in defending the continent. Ukraine is very grateful for the military, financial and humanitarian support of the EU and United Kingdom, “but collective Europe must provide real security guarantees for Ukraine, as the eastern border of Europe, by establishing a joint European security system and European army with the involvement of Ukraine… only in this case will the impact be meaningful and send a strong signal to the U.S. and Russia.”
For many Ukrainians, that signal must also be given at the negotiation table. “Anyone designing a peace deal for Ukraine must take into account the risk… If it is so bad, then part of society will find it not just unbearable to tolerate, but bad enough to act. There are enough Ukrainian patriots in the country and allowing Putin to benefit from the peace after all the sacrifices would be absolutely inadmissible,” warned Ukraine’s former Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, in London on February 21.
A weak agreement that appeases the aggressor and undermines international law would also embolden Russia’s geopolitical ambitions. “Russia’s strategic goal is the political subjugation of Ukraine. Putin will continue until he reaches his goal. Nonetheless, I highly doubt that the next government would have the same strategic goal if we removed Putin from the equation,” Zemliakova said.
However, one outcome of Russia’s quest to regain power in Ukraine is that the former Soviet state has been transformed into a united country more resolved in its sovereignty.
“Even after the war ends, there will be irreversible changes in how people see their own history and identity. The war has rewritten narratives about who we are as a country and as individuals…with a stronger sense of unity and purpose,” Kryvenko declared.
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