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This is why iPhone market share in China will keep shrinking: a billionaire’s theory


Pavel Durov, the billionaire founder and CEO of Telegram, has a theory on why iPhone’s market share in China will “keep shrinking”.

As you probably know, Apple removed Telegram from its China app store. China’s Cyberspace Administration has forced Apple to boot a number of encrypted messaging apps like Meta’s WhatsApp and Threads, as well as private chat apps Telegram and Signal, from the App Store.

This, however, has not caused any decrease in Telegram downloads from China, according to Durov. He criticized Apple instead for its “walled garden” app policies.

Durov posted on his public Telegram channel a message that explained his point of view.

Durov asserted that Beijing’s action targeted Apple rather than Telegram. He emphasized the advantage of Android phones, which allow users to sideload apps outside of official app stores like Telegram. Hence, Durov predicts, more users in China will switch to Android due to this restriction, leading to a shrinking iPhone market share in China:

In China, users must use VPNs to bypass the country’s censorship system, known as the “Great Firewall,” to access Telegram. Despite these challenges, Durov highlighted that Telegram remains popular in China among resourceful users who find ways to access the platform.


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