Firstly, despite those modified forecasts, the company still expects to sell 12-and-a-half million Switches and 160 million games this financial year. The system is now in the second half of its eighth year on the market. That sales are worse than last year and slowing is to be expected.
Also, as with last quarter’s results, the booming success of both Tears of the Kingdom and the Super Mario Bros. Movie make those YoY numbers look even worse. Anyone who thought that 2024’s top-down Zelda entry was going to have a similar impact to the most anticipated sequel of the generation needs to have a day off.
Switch sales might be a shadow of what they once were, yet considering its age and its enormous library of games — expanding on a near-monthly basis with banger after banger after banger — it’s doing well enough for Nintendo to cruise through the holiday season on evergreen software and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe bundles. Over a decade after its Wii U debut, that game continues to sell more on a weekly basis than most other new releases across all platforms. Ker-razy.
We should also remember that these results only account for sales up to the end of September, which means Super Mario Party Jamboree’s (no doubt healthy) numbers will be counted in the Q3 February results. Mario & Luigi: Brothership might not have the Party series’ pull, but it’s been generally well-received by critics and will almost certainly crack a million units sold over the next three months. And let’s not forget those hot Alarmo sales figures! In fact, we’re not joking there — at 100 bucks a pop, they’re sure to have brought in a tidy profit.
However, expected or otherwise, with nary an arrow pointing up in these mid-year charts, it’s clear that only one thing is going to steady the ship and satisfy investor demand for growth. It’s the announcement we’ve all been waiting for. Yes, it’s time to shine, Rhythm Heaven Megamix DX.
Bwahahahahha. (Seriously, though, Switch has three Mario Partys, two WarioWares, and not even a cheeky Rhythm Heaven re-release!?)
Obviously, a new hardware reveal will energise the entire business, and it’s clearer than ever before that it’s needed. The company president says that plans haven’t changed for the Switch successor’s unveiling sometime before April 2025 and it’s critical that Nintendo gets this reveal right. A Wii U-style fumble seems unlikely given the hard lessons learned last time, but there’s a risk that ‘more of the same’ could garner a lukewarm reception, too. The stakes are high.
Nintendo might pepper the coming months with Music app drops and alarm clock announcements and genuinely exciting game reveals, but we’re reaching the end of the holding pattern the company’s been in for well over a year. All the minuses and downward trends on today’s financials don’t make for encouraging reading, and there are only so many times you can brush aside investor questions and concerns before you have to play your hand – and there’s nothing quite like shiny new hardware.
The question is whether or not Nintendo’s got an ace.
