Thunderbolts is here, marking the explosive end to the Marvel Cinematic Universe’s Phase Five. Although it’s faring well with audiences and critics alike, the question of whether it will be a box office success is up in the air.
The new MCU movie brings together a group of morally grey antiheroes led by Bucky Barnes (Sebastian Stan) and Yelena Belova (Florence Pugh), in a high-stakes mission that could decide the fate of the world.
Alongside espionage, personal trauma, and superhero chaos, the film features the MCU debut of one of Marvel’s most powerful characters: Bob Reynolds, aka the Sentry (Lewis Pullman).
But while the action is huge, the pressure behind the scenes is just as intense. With superhero fatigue, rising budgets, and audience expectations at an all-time high, the question looms large: will Thunderbolts be a hit?
Thunderbolts budget and what it needs to break even
While Marvel hasn’t confirmed the exact cost of Thunderbolts, industry estimates put the production budget before marketing at around $180 million. So, to break even, it would need to make roughly $400–500 million to break even.
If you’re left scratching your head at this figure, just know that movies generally need to make approximately 2.5 times their original budget to break even due to the additional costs such as fees to exhibitors, merchandising, and taxes.
Studios only keep about 50-60% of box office revenue (and less from international markets), and there are also marketing costs, which for Marvel blockbusters can exceed $100 million. So, when it comes to Thunderbolts, the required figure may be even higher.
Opening weekend box office predictions
According to Box Office Pro, Thunderbolts is on track to make between $80 million and $90 million in the US domestic box office over its opening weekend. While that’s below the highs of Marvel’s Phase Three, it would be a respectable debut given recent trends and strong word of mouth.
Analysts expect Thunderbolts to reach between $160 million to $175 million globally in its first weekend. Much will depend on overseas markets like China, South Korea, and the UK, where superhero movies have been more hit-or-miss in recent years.
A strong second weekend with minimal drop-off will be critical. If it follows the legs of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, it could easily push past the $400 million mark – but if it drops like The Marvels and Captain America: Brave New World, it may struggle to break even.
We’ll be sure to keep you updated here when the results are in.
How Thunderbolts compares to other recent Marvel movies
The Marvels was the MCU’s biggest movie flop to date
The last few Marvel releases have painted a mixed picture. Check out the results below:
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
- Production budget: $250 million
- Worldwide box office: $845 million
- Outcome: Hit
The Marvels
- Production budget: $270 million
- Worldwide box office: $206 million
- Outcome: Major flop
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
- Production budget: $200 million
- Worldwide box office: $476 million
- Outcome: Disappointing, but technically broke even
Deadpool & Wolverine
- Production budget: $200 million
- Expected Box Office: $1.3 billion
- Outcome: Huge hit
Marvel is hoping Thunderbolts will land closer to Guardians than The Marvels. Early reviews are strong, and the tone – darker and more grounded – has been praised as a return to what made the MCU compelling in its earlier days.
Thunderbolts is in cinemas now. If you’ve seen it and don’t mind spoilers, here’s a breakdown of the ending and the post-credits scenes.
You can also read about why Baron Zemo isn’t in the movie, how the post-credits scene breaks an MCU record, and everything we know about Avengers: Doomsday, Avengers: Secret Wars, and The Fantastic Four: First Steps.
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