A coronal mass ejection (CME) is headed straight for Earth per NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Space Weather Prediction Center. Astrophotographers should charge their camera batteries, check weather conditions for tomorrow, and prepare for what could be the biggest auroral event of the year.
While there is no way to guarantee that auroral displays will light up the sky — space weather is enigmatic — the experts agree that the odds are looking very good. The CME is slated to strike Earth on June 1st, and auroras may be visible across Europe and many U.S. states. While Spaceweather.com does not expect the storm to be as powerful as the one that lit up the skies just over a year ago, it “could be one of the bigger events of Solar Cycle 25 is a severe storm materializes.”
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center expects the CME to arrive on June 1st, with passage continuing into June 2nd. The current expectation is that the CME will strike Earth’s atmosphere sometime between midday (EDT) and early evening. However, timing is tricky to predict due to the current solar wind conditions. Nonetheless, the CME speed and direction provide “fair confidence in an Earth arrival.” While that language is not dripping with confidence, the geomagnetic storm watch is a G4-class, which is extremely high.
There is currently a 55% chance of severe geomagnetic storms at mid-latitudes over the next 48 hours and a whopping 95% chance of the same thing at high latitudes.
Again, and it is vital to stress this, space weather predictions are challenging. Everything has to come together for good aurora photography, including the timing of impact, cloud conditions, and good old-fashioned luck. The most essential ingredient — a strong CME headed in the right direction — is in play, at least. Further, the Moon is a reasonably dim waxing crescent right now, which helps. There are no guarantees when it comes to auroras, but things are looking as promising as they have all year.
PetaPixel has many aurora photography guides to help beginners and veterans alike have the best chance at success, including the following:
Image credits: Aurora photos by Jeremy Gray
Source link
