What makes for a great Super Bowl matchup on paper? While there’s surely no uniform answer, there are several key considerations at play in any given year.
To start, it can’t hurt to have sufficient star power, especially at quarterback. And while a team getting hot and defying the odds as an underdog can be entertaining, seeing heavyweights that established their dominance during the regular season can help build anticipation for the matchup. Then there’s the novelty matter. For as much interest as there might be in an unusual pairing of conference champions – especially if they are seeking a first title – there’s always intrigue around a marquee rematch or any showdown with strong historical roots.
As the divisional round of the NFL playoffs gets started Saturday, it’s only natural to weigh several of those factors against one another in contemplating all 16 of the possible Super Bowl matchups still in play. With that said, here are our rankings of those options from best to worst:
1. Bills vs. 49ers
There’s both a touch of history and originality to this one. San Francisco and Buffalo circled one another in the late ’80s and early ’90s, with San Francisco winning two titles prior to – and another after – the Bills’ run of four consecutive Super Bowl appearances. But the two franchises have never faced one another on the grand stage. The NFL’s hottest team vs. the league’s most imposing collection of talent would be an easy sell. Be prepared for an unrelenting wave of Chris Berman, whose long-held dream matchup would finally materialize here.
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2. Ravens vs. 49ers
How is this not No. 1? If not for the Ravens’ Christmas blowout of the Niners, it would be squarely in front. No matchup, however, can match this one in terms of pure firepower. After likely seizing NFL MVP honors in the last meeting, Lamar Jackson could finally end the narrative about his playoff shortcomings by again vanquishing the class of the NFC. Meanwhile, Brock Purdy would be pressed to show his four-interception unraveling in the last showdown with Baltimore was merely an aberration. And that’s to say nothing of the Super Bowl 47 rematch subplot. We’ll keep the lights on for this possibility.Â
3. Chiefs vs. 49ers
With the Cowboys out of the playoffs, this option stands above the rest as the pinnacle of title game hype – and a TV ratings bonanza, if you care about that sort of thing. Super Bowl 54 is fresh enough for a legitimate revenge factor to course throughout the affair, as plenty of the primary figures in that clash are still around for both Kansas City and San Francisco. As Kyle Shanahan tries to shake off his haunting moments from his previous title game appearances, it’s hard to think of better final bosses for his journey than Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, whose famous “wasp” play to propel the Chiefs to a 10-point fourth-quarter comeback must still sting for the 49ers. Kelce and Taylor Swift would certainly be center stage throughout Super Bowl week, but Swifties would be treated to a fun not-quite-anti-hero in George Kittle.Â
4. Chiefs vs. Lions
What a bookend to the season this would provide. The stunning opener to 2023 gave us a sneak peek at several crucial trends that would come to define these teams’ seasons, including the Chiefs’ suspect and error-prone receiving corps as well as the Lions’ ability to stand up to a legitimate contender. Chris Jones, who sat out that contest amid a contract dispute, would surely relish the opportunity to make one last big statement before what should be a sizable offseason payday. For both teams, this would be a fitting final referendum.
5. Bills vs. Lions
One long-suffering fan base would be guaranteed its first Super Bowl. That dynamic alone would surely power plenty of buzz, but the actual on-field elements are pretty compelling, too. The likelihood of a dazzling offensive display would be high, with the league’s third- and fourth-ranked attacks looking like too much for either undermanned defense to handle.Â
6. Chiefs vs. Packers
This would truly be a full circle moment for Jordan Love, who made his first career NFL start in substitute of a COVID-stricken Aaron Rodgers against Kansas City in 2021 and didn’t look palatable as a starting passer. But the Chiefs are already well aware of what Love is capable of after he sliced Steve Spagnuolo’s defense for three touchdown passes in Green Bay’s 27-19 win in early December. The throwback value would also be unmatched, with the two franchises squaring off for the title for the first time since meeting in the augural Super Bowl.
7. Bills vs. Packers
Love vs. Josh Allen has astounding value as a quarterback battle between two passers whose devil-may-care approach early in their careers flustered their own fan bases as much as opponents. The Super Bowl stage would be a fine display of how much each has grown.Â
8. Ravens vs. Packers
Interesting dichotomy between the team with the league’s best record and another that snuck into the playoffs just barely above .500. Still strong potential for solid actual play, but no doubt that this pairing is a little lacking for juicy storylines.Â
9. Texans vs. 49ers
Lots of familiarity at play here, with Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik having come from the Shanahan tree. There might not be a more imbalanced matchup out there, with Houston having the same number of postseason wins in its franchise history (five) as San Francisco does Super Bowl titles. But while the David vs. Goliath angles might catch some people’s attention, they might not be enough to sustain it.
10. Texans vs. Buccaneers
This seems like easily the most far-fetched possibility … which also adds a distinct level of intrigue. We know these teams can set off fireworks against one another, as their shootout in November featured five lead changes and C.J. Stroud passing for a rookie-record 470 yards and five touchdowns in the Texans’ 39-37 win. But this would be a rough go for many, as the franchises have little national appeal and were mostly afterthoughts when it came to this season’s prime-time schedule (the Texans being omitted entirely). Embrace chaos!
11. Texans vs. Lions
Much like Bills-Lions, this would guarantee one fan base its first Lombardi Trophy. This pairing, however, would represent the lone scenario in which two teams that have never played in the Super Bowl reached the final weekend. The surefire electric energy from the fan bases would be vital, as this otherwise seems like one that might have trouble hooking more casual observers – though it would be enjoyable to see two top-notch offensive coordinators and likely future head coaches in Slowik and the Lions’ Ben Johnson.
12. Chiefs vs. Buccaneers
Mahomes vs. Tom Brady giving way to Mahomes vs. Baker Mayfield? Three years after the Buccaneers’ Super Bowl romp, this is hardly the title rematch anyone could have expected this season. Tampa Bay would no doubt be a massive underdog in this setting, but Mayfield seems to relish being doubted. Still, even with the outcome of the previous clash, this one probably wouldn’t measure up to many of the other options in terms of anticipation.
13. Ravens vs. Lions
Hard to get too enthusiastic about the upside here given the Ravens’ 38-6 walkover in Week 7. Fun one for enthusiasts of offensive line play, though.Â
14. Ravens vs. Buccaneers
Probably some fun to be had with the dynamic between Mayfield, the first pick in 2018, and Jackson, the last pick of the first round that same year. Beyond that, this feels like another one that could get out of hand quickly.Â
15. Texans vs. Packers
Nice showcase for two of the league’s upstart young passers. Beyond that, there’s probably a deficit of star power for a spotlight this bright.
16. Bills vs. Buccaneers
Saw this one already in a Week 8 “Thursday Night Football” matchup in which the Bills didn’t have much trouble claiming a 24-18 win. Wasn’t very entertaining then. Shouldn’t expect it to be very entertaining in February.
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