As a part of Intel’s annual investor assembly going down in the present day, Raja Koduri, Intel’s SVP and GM of the Accelerated Computing Programs and Graphics (AXG) Group delivered an replace to traders on the state of Intel’s GPU and accelerator group, together with some recent information on the state of Intel’s first technology of Arc graphics merchandise. Amongst different issues, the GPU frontman confirmed that whereas Intel will certainly ship the primary Arc cell merchandise within the present quarter, desktop merchandise is not going to come till Q2. In the meantime, within the first disclosure of chip volumes, Intel is now projecting that they’ll ship 4mil+ Arc GPUs this 12 months.
By way of timing, in the present day’s disclosure confirms some earlier suspicions that developed following Intel’s CES 2022 presentation: that the corporate would get its cell Arc merchandise out earlier than their desktop merchandise. Desktop merchandise will now observe within the second quarter of this 12 months, a few months behind the cell components. And eventually, workstation merchandise, which Intel has beforehand hinted at, are on their method and can land in Q3.
The pre-recorded presentation from Koduri doesn’t provide any additional particulars as to why Intel has their much-awaited Arc Alchemist architecture-based desktop merchandise trailing their cell merchandise by 1 / 4. We all know from earlier bulletins that the Alchemist household is comprised of two GPUs, so it could be that Intel is farther forward on manufacturing and delivering the smaller of the 2 GPUs, which might be finest fitted to laptops. Alternatively, the corporate could also be opting to give attention to laptops first since it will permit them to start out with OEM units, after which broaden into the extra advanced add-in board market a bit later. In any case, it’s a notable departure from the standard top-to-bottom, desktop-then-laptop fashion launches that present GPU titans NVIDIA and AMD have favored. And because of this keen fans on the lookout for an apples-to-apples have a look at how Intel’s first high-end GPU structure fares, we’re going to be ready a bit longer than initially anticipated.
In the meantime, between cell, desktop, and workstation merchandise, Intel is anticipating to ship over 4 million items/GPUs for 2022. To place this in some type of reference, Jon Peddie Analysis estimates that the GPU AIB trade shipped 12.7 million boards in Q3’21. Which, pending This autumn numbers being launched, would have put the trade as having shipped over 40 million discrete boards altogether over 2021. And whereas it is a little bit of an apples-to-oranges comparability since Intel is counting each AIB desktop and cell merchandise, it does underscore the general low quantity of Alchemist chips that Intel is anticipating to promote this 12 months. Assuming AMD and NVIDIA ship as many chips in 2022 as they did in 2021, Intel will likely be including at most not more than one other 10% to the general quantity of GPUs bought.
On the entire, this isn’t too stunning given each present manufacturing constraints and Intel’s newcomer standing. The corporate is utilizing TSMC’s N6 course of to fab their Alchemist GPUs, and TSMC stays capability constrained through the present chip crunch; so what number of wafers Intel may hope to get was at all times going to be restricted. In the meantime as a relative newcomer to the discrete GPU house – a market that has been an NVIDIA/AMD duopoly for a lot of the previous 20 years – Intel doesn’t have the shopper inertia that comes from providing a long time of merchandise. So even when Alchemist merchandise carry out very effectively relative to the competitors, the corporate nonetheless wants time to develop into AMD and NVIDIA-sized sneakers and to woo over the comparatively conservative OEM base.
Celestial Structure Underneath Growth: Concentrating on Extremely Fanatic Market
Together with the replace on Alchemist, Koduri’s presentation additionally provided a really (very) temporary replace on Celestial, Intel’s third Arc structure. Celestial is now beneath improvement, and at this level, Intel is anticipating it to be their first product to deal with the ultra-enthusiast market (i.e. the efficiency crown). GPUs based mostly on the Celestial structure are anticipated within the “2024+” timeframe; which is to say that at this far out Intel doesn’t appear to know for certain in the event that they’ll be 2024 or 2025 merchandise.
Overlaying the hole between Alchemist and Celestial will likely be Battlemage, the second of Intel’s Arc GPU architectures. Battlemage now has a 2023-2024 launch date, with Intel anticipating the structure to enhance efficiency over Alchemist to the purpose the place Battlemage will likely be aggressive within the fanatic GPU market – however not fairly reaching the ultra-enthusiasts that Celestial will.
Lastly, by advantage of this disclosure, it will appear that Battlemage would be the first Arc GPU structure to make it into Intel’s CPUs. The corporate has it slated to be applied as a tile on Meteor Lake CPUs, making this the crossover level the place Intel’s present Xe-LP GPU structure lastly will get retired in favor of a more recent GPU structure.